The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has stated that it expects the global air transport industry to record losses of $4.7bn in 2009. That is significantly worse than its December forecast which foresaw a $2.5bn loss, reflecting the rapid deterioration of global economic conditions. Overall revenues (cargo and passenger) are expected to fall by 12% ($62bn) to $467bn.
According to IATA, cargo demand is expected to decline by 13% this year compared with 2008. That latest forecast has also been revised since December when the organisation expected a 5% fall in cargo demand during 2009.
Losses would be even worse if fuel prices had not stabilised, indicated IATA. With an expected fuel price of $50 per barrel (Brent oil), the industry's fuel bill is expected to drop to 25% of operating costs (compared to 32% in 2008 when oil averaged $99 per barrel).
IATA believes that carriers in the Asia Pacific region continue to be hardest hit by the current economic turmoil and says they are expected to post losses of $1.7bn. The Middle East will be the only region with demand growth in 2009 (+1.2%).
IATA's warning is compounded by figures released by the Air Transport Association of America (ATA), the industry trade organisation representing leading US carriers. In a recent statement, that body reported that its members' cargo traffic declined by 21% year on year in January 2009, after back-to-back 17% declines in November and December 2008. Notably, transpacific cargo traffic fell 32%.
The only glimmer of hope in the short term, according to IATA, is that there may be a modest bounce in air freight as manufacturers end their destocking. That should see component shipping rise a little. But weak consumer and business confidence is expected to keep spending and demand for air transport low.
"The prospects for airlines are dependent on economic recovery. There is little to indicate an early end to the downturn. It will be a grim 2009. And while prospects may improve towards the end of the year, expecting a significant recovery in 2010 would require more optimism than realism," said Giovanni Bisignani, IATA's Director General and CEO.
What are your thoughts on the Aircargo situation for 2009, is your business surviving.
No comments:
Post a Comment